The evolution of bicycle frames has a colourful history. Initially, the Bike frame was made of wood and iron, bulky but sturdy, and bicycles were used more as a means of transport. As technology developed, iron and aluminium frames appeared, which were lighter and more durable, and bikes started to become people's sporting companions. In recent years, more and more different models have appeared, such as road bikes, BMX bikes, fixed gear bikes, folding bikes and so on. The popularity of carbon fibre frames has made bicycles lighter and faster, promoting the development of cycling. However, due to the high price, it is not yet the mainstream of the market.
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On the 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw its main aluminum contract, Al0804, hit a record high of 19,740 yuan per ton since December 2006. Internationally, aluminum prices surged by over 150 dollars per ton in just three days, a rise of more than 6%. As the week before the Spring Festival approached, the aluminum market—once considered weak—has now made a surprising comeback. Industry experts believe this is due to ongoing concerns about potential disruptions in spot supply, especially after electrolytic aluminum producers faced sudden severe weather conditions.
According to the latest data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's aluminum production in 2007 rose by 34.8% to 12.607 million tons, with December output reaching 1.147 million tons, slightly higher than November’s 1.135 million tons. Meanwhile, the International Aluminum Association (IAI) reported that global aluminum output excluding China was only 2.161 million tons in December, meaning China accounted for over one-third of global production that month.
Wan Ling, a senior analyst at the British Commodity Research Institute (CRU), predicted at the recent "2008 Maike Basic Metal Market Outlook Conference" that global electrolytic aluminum production would grow by around 11% this year, reaching 42.54 million tons. Most of this increase will come from China, which is expected to produce 15.6 million tons in 2008.
However, in eastern, central, and southwestern China, more than half a month of continuous heavy rain and snow has caused widespread disruption. The electrolytic aluminum industry, which is energy-intensive, has been hit hard. In Guizhou, nearly 750,000 tons of production capacity was suspended, while all aluminum plants in Sichuan were forced to shut down by half. This resulted in approximately 1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production being halted due to power cuts and outages. This represents nearly 8% of total production capacity being lost, causing significant supply disruptions.
Industry insiders warn that once an electrolytic aluminum plant is shut down, the damage can be permanent, leading to long-term loss of production. Before the current crisis, Wan Ling had already noted that China’s demand remained strong in 2008. Despite the subprime mortgage crisis and weak North American demand, increased Chinese production led to a global surplus of 900,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum last year. This surplus was already fragile, and the current supply disruption in China is now adding to global concerns.
The impact of China’s supply issues is likely to spread through international trade channels. According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported only 160,000 tons of primary aluminum in 2007, a year-on-year drop of 80.8%. However, exports of aluminum alloys with preferential tariffs remained stable at 380,000 tons. With nearly one million tons of production capacity now offline, the risk of global aluminum shortages is increasing. The sharp rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) prices over the past three days appears to be heavily influenced by the Chinese market.
Despite this, Wang Feihong, a chief expert at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd., told the First Financial Daily that both domestic and international electrolytic aluminum prices have not been satisfactory. He added that China’s aluminum exports are mainly based on long-term contracts.
In the industry, it is widely acknowledged that China’s massive production capacity has sent a clear “China factor†into the global market. Through this supply disruption, China has demonstrated its growing influence over global aluminum price trends.