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On February 28th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) witnessed a significant surge in its main aluminum contract, Al0804, which hit a record high of 19,740 yuan per ton since December 2006. This came as international aluminum prices jumped by over 6%—a sharp increase of 150 USD per ton in just three days. The aluminum market has been under pressure in the week leading up to the Spring Festival, with supply disruptions becoming a key concern. Industry experts believe this is linked to ongoing weather-related challenges that have disrupted the electrolytic aluminum sector.
According to the latest data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s aluminum production in 2007 rose by 34.8% to 12.607 million tons, with December output reaching 1.147 million tons—slightly higher than November's 1.135 million tons. Meanwhile, the International Aluminum Association (IAI) reported that global aluminum output (excluding China) in December was only 2.161 million tons, meaning China accounted for more than one-third of the world’s total aluminum production in that month.
Wan Ling, a senior analyst at the British Commodity Research Institute (CRU), predicted that global electrolytic aluminum production would grow by around 11% in 2008, reaching 42.54 million tons. Most of this growth is expected to come from China, where electrolytic aluminum output is projected to reach 15.6 million tons this year.
However, severe snow and rainstorms affecting eastern, central, and southwestern China for over half a month have caused major disruptions in the power-hungry aluminum industry. In Guizhou, nearly 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity was suspended, while all aluminum plants in Sichuan were forced to shut down by half. Altogether, it is estimated that nearly 1 million tons of production capacity was halted due to power cuts and shortages. This represents about 8% of total capacity being offline, causing significant supply interruptions.
Industry insiders warn that once an electrolytic aluminum cell is shut down, the damage can be irreversible, leading to permanent loss of production. Before the recent storm, Wan Ling had already noted that China’s demand for aluminum remains strong despite the subprime mortgage crisis. Even with weak North American demand, China’s increased production had led to a global surplus of 900,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2008—making the current supply situation even more fragile.
The disruption in China’s aluminum supply could also impact global markets through trade channels. According to customs data released last Tuesday, China exported only 160,000 tons of primary aluminum in 2007, a year-on-year drop of 80.8%. However, aluminum alloys with preferential export tariffs still reached 380,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous year. With nearly 1 million tons of production capacity now offline, concerns over global aluminum shortages are intensifying. In fact, the sharp rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices over the past three days appears to be heavily influenced by the Chinese market.
Despite these developments, Wang Feihong, chief expert at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd., told the First Financial Daily that domestic and international electrolytic aluminum prices remain unsatisfactory. He added that China’s aluminum exports are mainly based on long-term contracts.
Nonetheless, the industry widely acknowledges that China’s massive production capacity has sent a strong “China factor†into the global aluminum market, influencing price trends worldwide. As the supply disruption continues, the ripple effects are likely to be felt far beyond China’s borders.