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What needs attention is that in the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry only increased by 3.07%, which was the lowest growth rate in the same period since 2008. In response, Dong Yang, deputy chairman of China National Aircraft Association, said in response to a reporter's question, “If you consider the transformation and upgrading, the growth rate should be said to be reasonable.†He also said, “In the new normal, various data changes also need To further study, we cannot simply say that 'low' is not good."
Predicting the trend of the whole year, Chen Bin stated that in 2016, the economic operation of the machinery industry will continue its trend of stabilizing since the fourth quarter of last year. In the second half of the year, based on the overall stabilization, there will be slight fluctuations in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry will be slightly higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry. The revenue and profit of the main business will keep growing at the same time, and the growth rate of exports will not be lower than last year.
Key industries boosted growth rate of solid investment
According to the latest statistics, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry has been reduced from the growth rate of the industrial and manufacturing industries in the country in the previous year to higher than the growth rate of the industrial and manufacturing industries in the country. From January to June, the value-added of machinery industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry by 1.8 and 0.9% respectively, which was higher than that of the machinery industry by 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The main business income of machinery industry was RMB 11.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, which was 3.21 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The total profit reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, which was 6.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The main benefit indicators of the machinery industry showed a trend of stabilization. Compared with the national industry, the main business income and profit growth rate of the machinery industry were higher than the national industry by 3.55 and 0.33 percentage points respectively.
Chen Bin pointed out that among the 119 key products monitored by the machinery industry in the first half of the year, the number of products that achieved year-on-year growth increased month by month. By June, there were 60 kinds of products with a year-on-year increase, accounting for 50.42%, and 59 products with a year-on-year decrease, accounting for 49.58%.
Specifically, the major declines in output continue to be mainly in metal smelting equipment, machine tools, power generation equipment, oil drilling equipment and other investment products, optical instruments, cameras and other products, as well as agricultural machinery such as tractors and harvesting machines that have always maintained rapid growth during the previous period. product. The increase in output is mainly related to products that are closely related to consumption, technological upgrading, and environmental protection, such as automobiles, electrical instruments, automotive instruments, power capacitors related to power transmission and transformation, high-voltage switchgear, fiber optic cables, and special equipment for environmental pollution control. Molds, pneumatic components, metal seals and other parts products.
Although the major economic indicators of the machinery industry showed a trend of stabilization, the trend of operation among the industries has become more pronounced. The construction machinery industry is still generally difficult. In particular, the decline in the efficiency of large and medium-sized enterprises has not changed, and the loss surface continues to expand. The operating rate of the heavy mining industry declined. The industry showed that some enterprises were stable, some companies suffered losses, and some enterprises converted or stopped production. The order of petrochemical general machinery industry continued to be insufficient and industry profits continued to decline. The machine tool industry remains sluggish, with the profit of metal cutting machine tools manufacturing down 22.12% year-on-year.
"As the two key industries of the machinery industry, the automotive industry and electrical and electronic appliances industry have promoted the smooth progress of the machinery industry under the market demand, favorable policies, and large-scale upgrading of the power generation and transmission and transformation industries." Bin stressed that from January to June, the main business income of the automobile industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, electrical and electronics industries grew by 8.21% year-on-year, and other machinery industries, excluding cars and electrical appliances, grew by 3.41% year-on-year. Among the newly-increased main business income of the whole industry, the automobile industry accounted for 48.91%, the electrical and electronics industry accounted for 28.88%, and other industries accounted for only 22.21%.
In the first half of the year, the profits of the automotive industry increased by 6.34% year-on-year, and that of the electrical and electronics industry grew by 15.13% year-on-year, while those of other machinery and machinery industries excluding automobiles and electrical appliances grew by only 2.44% year-on-year. Among the new industry-wide profits, the automotive industry accounted for 41.31%. %, electrical appliances industry accounted for 44.33%, other industries accounted for only 14.36%.
At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that investment in fixed assets in the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year, manufacturing industry increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and investment in machinery industry only increased by 3.07%, which was the lowest growth rate in the same period since 2008, and the amount of investment completed in June was already A year-on-year decline.
From the trend, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry has always been in a downtrend channel. The cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year has dropped by 7.86 percentage points from January to February. Among them, the investment growth rate for the purchase of equipment and equipment has also continued to fall. From January to June, it has dropped to 1.56% year-on-year. Chen Bin said that the decline in companies’ willingness to invest has a direct impact on future market demand and must be highly focused.
In the first half of this year, the total volume of imports and exports of the machinery industry totaled 309.8 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%, of which imports were 127.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.51% year-on-year, and exports were 182 billion U.S. dollars, down 6.42% year-on-year. In particular, private enterprises, which used to be the main force for the export of foreign trade in the machinery industry, have been declining since the beginning of this year, and have dropped from the previous double-digit growth to negative growth, a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%. In addition, major exporting provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong also experienced negative growth, with exports falling by 3.54%, 2.55%, and 5.47% respectively year-on-year. Mechanical industry exports have greater pressure on foreign trade.
From the perspective of market demand, this year's accumulated orders from key connected enterprises in the machinery industry have been freed from the continuous decline in the previous year. Accumulated orders in the first half of the year increased by 4.81% year-on-year, but the ordering situation was not stable. The main reasons are as follows: First, due to the accumulation of a relatively large amount of social stocks in the market during the early stage of high-speed growth, the new projects have a limited effect on the market. Second, upstream industries such as steel, coal, building materials, and petroleum have been in a downturn and demand for mechanical equipment has declined.
Smart Manufacturing Starts Change Another Way
Chen Bin pointed out that under the guidance of relevant industrial policies such as the “Made in China 2025†strategy, the transformation, upgrading and innovation of the machinery industry continued to advance.
Among them, large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV AC and DC and flexible DC power transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for long-distance oil and gas transmission pipelines, key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry, high-end CNC machine tools and other high-end equipment have achieved breakthroughs in independent research and development. For instance, the project of the “5-axis Linked Blade CNC Grinding Machine†led by Qinchuan Machine Tool passed the acceptance. The nuclear reactor coolant pump set equipment independently developed by Harbin Electric Power Group passed the inspection and acceptance, and Hangzhou Oxygen Group provided Ning Coal with 4 million tons of coal-based oil production project. The 6 sets of 100,000 cubic meters of super large air separation unit and the first domestic large air separation compressor unit developed by the Shengu Group are being installed and commissioned on site, and the first 1.2 million ton/year ethylene three-machine test run developed by the Shengu Group has been successful. The first domestic large-diameter polyethylene centrifuge equipment developed by Dongbei Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance test. The largest broken rectangular pipe jacking machine in the world was independently developed by China Railway Engineering Group, and the first domestic full hydraulic drilling rig delivered by Wuzhong was developed and delivered in Tibet. use. In the basic field, localization of high-voltage insulation bushings, transformer outlets, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, and large-scale power station forgings has made new progress in the localization of key components and core components that have long depended on imports. For example, if the 1000KV outlet device passed the new product appraisal, the "Hualong 1" main pipeline and the main steam safety valve passed the appraisal, and the third-generation nuclear power plant 1E-level shutdown circuit breaker screen passed the appraisal.
The building of innovation capability is steadily advancing. Due to the continuous downturn in the traditional product market, innovation and development has become an independent choice for more and more machinery companies. Enterprises' investment in innovation capacity building and exploration of innovative models has increased significantly.
Progress has been made in the construction of basic test and test platforms for the development of new products. Platforms for large-scale compressor test rigs, water wheel model test rigs, and power station safety valve test rigs have been completed one after another. Test and testing platforms with advanced world standards are still beginning to be built. For example, TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. will build a ±1100kV AC/DC power equipment R&D and manufacturing center with the world's highest voltage rating, adding the world's highest voltage level impact generators, DC high voltage generators, precision transformers, capacitor towers and other high-end The experimental equipment can meet the production test requirements of the highest voltage grade transformer products in the world. The pace of collaborative innovation is accelerating, and cooperation between machinery companies, user companies, and research institutes in R&D process innovation is more intense and frequent. The cooperation model was innovative, and cooperation and research and development achieved remarkable results.
Smart manufacturing started. In recent years, China's manufacturing industry has accelerated the pace of digitization and information construction, and the construction of automated production lines and digital workshops has been accelerated. The level of informationization in production, operations, and management of enterprises has been continuously improved. For example, Shanghai Electric Power Equipment Co., Ltd.'s generator factory has completed the research and development of a 1300MW nuclear power generator digital prototype project, and achieved new breakthroughs in digital three-dimensional design of the factory; Guangli Nuclear and other companies jointly completed China's first nuclear power plant digital control system with complete independent intellectual property rights. The development of the (DCS) platform and the achievement of the application in the second-generation, second-generation plus and third generation nuclear power projects. In addition, intelligent manufacturing has begun to take off under the synergy effect of the rapid development of information technologies such as the Internet and cloud computing, as well as sensing and control technologies. Take industrial robots as an example. According to statistics from China Robotics Industry Alliance, China has become the world’s largest consumer market for industrial robots for three consecutive years.
Actively explore new paths for transformation and development. The transformation of traditional enterprises into the manufacturing services industry continues to advance and service models continue to innovate. At present, service-oriented manufacturing in the machinery industry has been extended to 13 subordinate industries, achieving a complete service chain from R&D and design to product recycling and remanufacturing, and Weichai Power Group, Hangzhou Oxygen Concentrator Group, and Zhejiang have emerged. Control Technology Co., Ltd. and a number of typical and model companies.
Chen Bin pointed out that at the end of July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and China Machine Group jointly held the “Development of a Special Action Guide for Promoting Service-based Manufacturing Practices.†A number of companies showed that service-based manufacturing in the machinery industry is actively advancing. New models continue to emerge. The development of service-oriented manufacturing has become an important way for the transformation and upgrading of machinery industry enterprises.
In the fourth quarter, the fluctuation will be stable throughout the year.
Chen Bin pointed out that there are two aspects of the current favorable factors for the machinery industry. First, the policy effect of structural reforms on the supply side has gradually emerged, and the overall operation of the industrial economy has been stable, which is conducive to maintaining the trend toward stable operation of the machinery industry. Second, the industrial policy environment is conducive to the industry to promote structural adjustment. In particular, the relevant supporting policies of “Made in China 2025†and the introduction of policies and measures to promote structural transformation and increase efficiency of the machinery industry have provided a favorable development environment for the development of the machinery industry and boosted the confidence and determination of the entire industry.
The challenges include: First, the downward pressure on economic operations is still high, and the sluggish domestic market for mechanical products is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Iron and steel, coal, electricity, petroleum, and chemical industries, which are the main services for the machinery industry, are generally “de-capacityâ€. "The depth of the adjustment period, the demand is difficult to recover in the short term.
Second, after many years of rapid development, the social possessions of various types of machinery products have reached a considerable scale, and the demand for maintenance equipment has been released, while the demand for new equipment has also been reduced.
Third, the pressure on the industry's export situation is relatively high, market competition is fierce, trade frictions are intensifying, prices are falling, and profits are falling, which makes it difficult for export to rise.
In summary, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2016 will continue to be stable since the fourth quarter of last year, and in the second half of the year, there will be slight fluctuations in the fourth quarter on the basis of overall stabilization. It is expected that the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry will be slightly higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry. The revenue and profit of the main business will keep growing at the same time, and the growth rate of exports will not be lower than last year.
Regarding the factors of fluctuations in the fourth quarter, Chen Bin said that the machinery industry can grow steadily in the first half of the year, and the auto industry has played a big role in pushing and pulling. This has a lot to do with the relevant policies introduced in October last year. Starting from October of this year, the larger base may affect the trend of the auto industry. The auto industry accounts for about 34% of the machinery industry. The fluctuation of the auto industry may affect the trend of the machinery industry.
Chen Bin stressed that 2016 is the first year of implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan†and also the first year of a full-scale completion of a well-off society. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the strategic deployment of the central government, speed up the pace of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, further increase the vitality of economic growth and the driving force for innovation, and strive to achieve stable and rapid development of the machinery industry.
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China Machinery Industry Federation held the first half of the industry economic operation analysis meeting on August 9. Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machine Group, said that the first half of last year's economic growth continued the stabilization trend in the fourth quarter of last year, and the overall situation was better than expected at the beginning of the year. The major economic indicators maintained a slight upward trend. Among them, the value-added of the machinery industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry by 1.8 and 0.9% respectively.