·Xu Changming: V-shaped development of passenger car market growth rate is still expected

From January to September this year, the sales volume of passenger cars was 13.49 million, and the growth rate dropped significantly. From the monthly trend, the market continued to slump in the second quarter, the bottom in July, the demand stabilized in August, and the rebound in September. Entering the fourth quarter, affected by multiple factors such as policies, the passenger car market will also usher in a double-digit growth that is expected. So, what are the main reasons for the decline in the domestic auto market this year? What is the future direction of the market?
The main reason for the decline in the auto market this year is the macroeconomic slowdown. From a macro perspective, the decline in the passenger vehicle market is mainly affected by the macroeconomic downturn. GDP growth in 2014 was 7.4%, and fell to 7% in the first half of 2015 and continued to fall to 6.9% in the third quarter. The government’s “package” steady growth policy has not fully hedged the downward pressure on the economy. The real economy and real estate and manufacturing industries, such as the downturn in the real economy, are particularly prominent, and the demand for car purchases is also hit harder.
Compared with last year, although GDP has only declined by 0.5%, some changes at the micro level are more affected than the overall decline in the economy. The reduction in wages of state-owned enterprises combined with the impact of some high-income people will also affect car consumption, especially for high-end cars.
At the same time, through the performance of the automobile industry's added value, PPI and other data, the decline in confidence in driving consumers has also had a negative impact on the auto market.
The stock market effect and the purchase restriction factor are also the reasons for the decline of the auto market Since the end of March, the stock market has risen sharply, bringing a new account opening surge. In the second quarter, the number of newly opened accounts reached 37.36 million, and the funds flowed to the stock market. In late June, the stock market suffered a sharp fall. Although the government actively rescued the market, the funds of the investors were stuck and the wealth quickly shrank. In general, the stock market experienced a sharp fluctuation of the skyrocketing, so the resulting capital occupation and shrinkage of wealth significantly reduced the willingness to buy a car.
In addition, the purchase restriction factor is still the cause of the decline in the auto market. From 2013 to 2014, the purchase restriction in Tianjin and Hangzhou brought panic buying and pushed up the overall base. Some restrictions on rumors of the city's growth rate in the second quarter even reached 50% to 60%, such as Nanjing increased by 93.3%, Chongqing increased by 74.2%, Chengdu increased by 68.2%, Zhengzhou increased by 54.4%, Xi'an increased by 53.4%. Since 2015, the rumors of purchase restrictions have gradually waned, and the impact on sales has gradually weakened. The rumored cities have even experienced excessive growth in overdraft.
The economy and policy are driven by the fourth quarter. The growth rate of the passenger vehicle market may exceed 10%.
Stimulated by the economic stabilization and the launch of the automobile rescue policy, the growth rate of the passenger vehicle market in the fourth quarter is expected to return to double-digit growth of more than 10%.
The various monetary and fiscal policies introduced in the second half of the year benefited infrastructure, real estate and local debt respectively. The effects of steady growth, reform, and restructuring of various policies and measures have gradually emerged. The Chinese economy will show a stable and good trend in the fourth quarter. GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to return to 7%.
Most of the auto industry policies are also beneficial to the auto market in the fourth quarter. First, the government actively rescued the market, the stock market sucking effect and the shrinking effect of wealth gradually weakened. Secondly, the rumors of the restriction on purchases in the fourth quarter of last year have begun to weaken, and the base is not high. The possibility of restricting purchases in the city this year is very small, so the impact of the purchase restrictions in the fourth quarter has gradually subsided. Many factors can basically guarantee the growth rate of the car market by more than 4%.
The purchase tax halving policy, which was implemented in October, is undoubtedly a positive situation in the current economic and auto market declines, and its driving effect on the market is also strong. Compared with the purchase tax halving policy in 2009, this year's economic development has slowed down and the automobile stimulus policy is not as good as in 2009. Therefore, the demand for policy stimulus is far less than that of 2009. At the same time, the seven cities that have been restricted will also weaken the stimulus effect of this policy. It is expected that the fourth quarter will drive up the market by about 5%.
However, after the implementation of the national incentive policy, it will further boost the market. In the fourth quarter, some car companies promoted policies and promoted tax reductions for uncovered products. On the other hand, dealer confidence has also been significantly boosted, and the willingness to purchase has increased, which is conducive to the increase in sales in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the energy conservation subsidy policy will expire at the end of the year, and will also lead to concentrated purchase in advance.
Overall, the passenger vehicle market will pick up further in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate will further increase on the basis of 6.4% in September, which is likely to exceed 10%. In 2015, the passenger car market will show a “V” shape development trend.
Although the domestic auto market has experienced a continuous decline since the beginning of this year, in the long run, the short-term decline does not mean that the domestic auto market is “slow”. Both the government and the car companies are working hard to pick up the car market. Recently, through the "China Auto News 2015 annual consumption model and annual imported car test drive" sponsored by China Automotive News, we have seen the enthusiasm of the company to launch new products and boutiques, and also realized that the car companies are trying to boost with high-quality products. The determination of the car market.

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