Dr. Schmidt, the former general secretary of the International Rubber Research Organization, predicted at the 2nd Qingdao Natural Rubber International Forum held on September 17 that the global production of natural rubber will increase substantially after 2011, and will continue after 2015. decline.
Schmidt said that 11 countries in Asia did not start large-scale rubber replanting in 2005-2008, and most of the replanting took place in recent years, and the trees planted in 2005 had no yield until 2012. This has an impact on the production of natural rubber. The price of natural rubber is low, and the actual output is lower than normal output; when the price rises, the actual output is greater than the normal output. Therefore, despite the economic crisis experienced in 2009, actual output is still greater than normal production. He predicts that normal production will start rising from 2012 until the end of 2020.
He predicted that rubber production will not increase until 2012, because trees planted in 2008 will not be able to tap rubber until 2012. The trees that were planted in 2005-2008 will allow natural rubber production to increase substantially in 2011 and 2012, and will begin to decline after 2015.
He believes that the consumption in 2010 was greater than the output, and the price of natural rubber rose. Because demand still exceeds supply in 2011, it is estimated that natural rubber prices will continue to rise next year. After 2012, the situation will change, so for producing countries, the growth rate of ordinary production may determine the price level.
It is reported that Dr. Schmidt served as the general secretary of the International Rubber Research Institute from 2005 to 2009, and was mainly responsible for establishing and updating models to predict the demand for rubber, supply, and expected prices of natural and synthetic rubber. As a sponsor, he led the cooperation of the union of natural rubber producing countries and national synthetic rubber production agencies.

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