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On November 28, Chen Qingtai, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated at the "China Automotive Industry Summit" sponsored by the China Europe International Business School that China's auto industry is shifting from explosive growth to stable growth.
Chen Qingtai believes that some residents in China already have the ability to purchase cars. The formerly suppressed consumption potential has gradually been converted into purchasing power. After China’s accession to the WTO, people’s ability to purchase money is gradually being released, plus the Chinese have a herd mentality. The above consumption habits have promoted the upsurge of automobile consumption in some cities. This also led to the rapid growth of automobile production and sales in 2002. In 2003, the total output of Chinese automobiles increased by 36.7%, of which the growth of cars reached 85%, while the growth of SUVs reached 180%.
Chen Qingtai pointed out that this explosive growth has also misled many companies and investors. "They considered this extraordinary stage of extraordinary growth as a routine and they have formulated ambitious investment plans." According to a recent introduction by the industry development officer of the National Development and Reform Commission, currently China's vehicle production capacity has reached 8 million vehicles, plus 2.2 million vehicles under construction, and will reach 10.2 million vehicles after completion. “A lot of investors still do not care that we have transformed from explosive growth to stable growth in the market, and our investment enthusiasm continues unabated.â€
Chen Qingtai said that according to statistics, the scale of the current investment is expected to reach 10 million vehicles, and this year in the increasingly fierce price war, the utilization rate of car production capacity has fallen to about 55%, the first 9 months of the Chinese automobile market Although the sales volume has increased by 17.9%, the profits of enterprises have dropped by 52.9%. Fifteen car companies suffered losses. The profits of eight companies were declining, and only three of them had increased profits. “After experiencing a large market ups and downs, we should make an appropriate assessment and calm judgment on the Chinese auto market.â€
Chen Qingtai believes that explosive growth is caused by short-term factors, and the long-term factor that can be used to make judgments is a steady increase in volatility. He pointed out that from the experience of developed countries, the per capita GDP reached 1,000 to 2,000 US dollars began to enter the era of consumption of the Volkswagen, according to relevant research, this time GDP growth of 1%, vehicle consumption will increase by 1.02 From 1% to 1.95%, with per capita GDP exceeding US$2,000, car growth will enter a peak period. At present, the number of Chinese autos with thousands of people is less than 20% of the world's average, and the gap is even greater compared with countries with similarly developed countries. China has a vast territory and there is a large imbalance in economic development, even though China’s per capita GDP is just over US$1,000. However, the per capita GDP of the regions and cities with a population of about 200 million people in the relatively developed southeastern coastal areas actually exceeded 2000 U.S. dollars, and even reached 3,000 U.S. dollars, reaching a rapid increase in the level of consumption of the Volkswagen automobile. As the Chinese economy continues to grow, from the east to the middle, and then to the west, more and more people will join the auto consumption industry from the cities to the countryside, and this will constitute a period of long-term growth in car consumption.
Chen Qingtai analyzed that by 2020, China will have the potential to grow at an average annual growth rate of more than 7% of GDP, and the national per capita GDP will increase from US$1,000 to US$3,000 to US$4,000. It is also expected that the country can further expand domestic demand and adjust investment during this period. Relations with consumption, and the policy of boosting consumer spending on economic growth, will form an important period for sustained and rapid growth of China’s automobile consumption. The growth trend will gradually shift from high-speed growth to steady growth, that is, from 20% annual growth to about 10% growth. By 2020, China's thousands of people owning cars may be close to today's world average.
According to relevant calculations, the number of vehicles in China in 2005 was approximately 35 million, and the demand for that year was approximately 5.5 million. In 2010, the number of vehicles will reach 60 million, and the demand for vehicles in that year will be about 9 million. The number of vehicles in 2015 will reach 95 million, and the demand for that year may reach 13 million. The number of possessions will reach 140 million by 2020, and the demand for that year will reach 16 million. "It is certain that China will be the fastest growing automobile market in the world and the most demanding," said Chen Qingtai.