Review of the Operational Situation of Machinery Industry in 2012 and Outlook for 2013

Recalling that in 2012, the difficulties have increased rapidly and the industry has entered a period of medium-term growth. Looking ahead to 2013, the challenges are still severe. There must be continuous preparation for ideological preparations. There is no need to be too pessimistic and accelerate transformation and upgrading. It can be realized from big changes.

In the coming 2012, the difficulties in the economic operation of the machinery industry increased rapidly. The increase in the main economic indicators continued to fall rapidly in 2011. The industry has continued to grow from the “10th Five-Year Plan” and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period to nearly ten. The high-speed growth period of the year will be transferred to the medium-low growth period;

Looking forward to 2013, the business environment will remain severe. Both domestic demand and export conditions are not expected to significantly warm up. Market pressures on structural adjustments and upgrades will not be weakened, and the entire industry still needs ideological preparations for continued tightness.

The more difficult it is to look at the industry situation, the more it is necessary to have a dialectical and objective perspective. This reduction in growth rate is the goal of economic development to shift from speed to quality. From this perspective, the overall response and upgrading trend of machinery enterprises this year is still gratifying, and the market retreat mechanism is producing the expected results.

We should have full confidence in the long-term development prospects of China's machinery industry. The market-oriented reform of China's machinery industry has become more in-depth. The invisible hand of the market has already played, and will continue to play a huge role in, the development of the industry; if it is coupled with the strong guidance of the industrial policy, which has only the form of hands, it has already been launched. The process of "changing from big to strong" in the machinery industry will surely continue unstoppable.

In 2012, the growth rate of machinery industry slowed down, and the six major economic indicators such as industrial added value, total output value, realized profits, foreign exchange earned through exports, product output, and fixed asset investment all showed a downward trend. At the same time, the industrial situation became more fragmented and the economy was operating. Increased difficulty.

(1) The growth rate of industrial added value decreased significantly from January to September 2012. The cumulative growth rate was 8.6% year-on-year in the machinery industry, 1.3% lower than the national average growth rate (9.9%), and the machinery industry increased in 12 industrial sectors. The growth rate of value has dropped to 10, which is only higher than the petrochemical industry (7.9%) and the power industry (4.6%).

(2) The growth rate of total industrial output value dropped by more than 10% from the same period of the previous year. From January to October, the total industrial output value was 14.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.91% year-on-year. The growth rate was the lowest in nearly 10 years (excluding 2009), compared with 2011. The growth rate dropped by another 13 percentage points.

(3) The growth rate of gross profit decreased much faster than that of production and sales in January-September 2012, which totaled 811.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45%. The increase in profits, which has been uncommon for many years, is much less disturbing than the 12% increase in sales during the same period.

(4) The growth rate of foreign exchange earners decreased significantly From January to September of 2012, the machinery industry earned 263.6 billion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange through exports, a year-on-year increase of 11.48%. Compared with the increase of the same period of last year, the growth rate dropped by more than 10 percentage points. In particular, the export situation in the second half of the year fell sharply. The year-on-year increase of 7, 8, and 9 months dropped to 4.69%, 2.47%, and 7.51% respectively. The growth rate has slipped below 10%, which is rare in recent years. Disturbing.

(5) Production of one-third of the major products decreased from January to October. Of the 120 main products, 72 produced increased year-on-year, accounting for 60%; 48 produced decreased, accounting for 40%. The output of 40% of the products has declined, which is rare in recent years.

(6) The growth rate of investment in fixed assets dropped significantly. From January to October, the total investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry was 2,580.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.00%. Although the growth rate continued to exceed the national (20.7%) and manufacturing (23.1%) 5.3 and 2.9, Percentage points, but about 10 percentage points lower than the increase in the same period last year.

The fall in fixed asset growth indicates that the heat of production expansion has significantly cooled.

The growth rate of the machinery industry in 2012 forecasting the growth rate of the machinery industry has basically bottomed out, and it may not be significant to continue the apparent decline in the future. The fourth quarter will continue to operate at the bottom speed. The whole year is expected to present a pattern of “early slide bottoming out, late low level stabilization or slight recovery”.

Although the growth rate of major economic indicators of the machinery industry has declined significantly from the previous year, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 14%; the profit growth is expected to be around 5%; the export growth is expected to be around 10%.

The growth rate of GDP in 2012 dropped by quarter by quarter, and it may recover slightly in the fourth quarter. It is expected to be around 7.8% for the whole year. Although it is higher than the 7.5% target set at the beginning of the year, it is obviously lower than the actual growth rate in previous years, indicating that the economy The growth rate has already bid farewell to the high growth stage of about 10%; the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 8% in 2013 and will be slightly higher than this year.

To sum up, we must have sufficient ideological preparations for the difficult situation in which domestic demand needs to be weak in 2013. However, there are indeed subjective and objective conditions for a moderate rise in demand. Therefore, the situation of domestic demand should not be overly pessimistic.