China and Japan have already reached an annual agreement on the new round of Sino-Japanese thermal coal negotiations on June 20th. The final price of the long association is locked at 145.75 US dollars per ton (FOB), and the number is 680,000 tons. At the same time, a five-year Sino-Japanese coal supply agreement was signed, which stipulated the minimum quantity of thermal coal that China will supply to Japan during the period 2011-2015. The news was not confirmed by the Chinese and Japanese negotiators, but sources said that the two parties are expected to announce the news in the near future. However, another coal group official said that according to what he is currently aware of, the current agreement may only be an intention, the final agreement has not been finalized, and the final figure may be biased. Several analysts interviewed expressed surprise at the above prices, which is nearly 16 US dollars/ton more than the annual annual coal coal prices agreed by Japan and Australia, and the final lock-up of 680,000 tons is almost negligible. Excluding. “With such a high price, the willingness of the Japanese side to import is extremely low, and the two parties merely extend the tradition of cooperation.†Huang Teng, general manager of Beijing Long Trade Consulting Co., Ltd. said Huang Zeng spent many years at China Coal Group and was familiar with Sino-Japanese thermal coal negotiations. . "China's willingness to export is not strong either," said a member of China Minmetals Group, one of China's four coal exporters. The company's steam coal exports have stagnated for nearly a year. He said that large-scale central enterprises such as Shenhua and China Coal In fact, not only export profits are not necessarily better than domestic sales. Under the pressure of the government's first guarantee of domestic coal supply, the reduction of electric coal exports has become an inevitable choice. The annual Sino-Japanese thermal coal negotiations that should have taken place in March this year were delayed for three months due to the strong earthquake in Japan. As in the past, the Chinese companies participating in the negotiations are mainly Shenhua Group and China Coal Group. The major export coal suppliers such as Tongji Group will also be represented, but there is no signing right. The Japanese side is led by a power company. Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. dispatched negotiators to represent 11 major power companies in Japan. On the previous April 15th, Japan-Australia agreed that the 2011/2012 financial coal negotiations will end at a price of US$129.85 per ton. Huang Teng said that taking into account the advantage of transport distance, the price of China-Japan-Japan-wide coal over the years is generally higher than that of Japan-Australia long-term coal prices by about US$10/ton, and the initial quotation of China this year reached US$150/ton, which is higher than that of Japan and Australia. The long-term price is 20 US dollars / ton, but also far higher than the current international spot price of less than 120 US dollars / ton. Chen Liang, a coal analyst of Huatai Securities, said that the price of the long-established association between China and Japan that was finalized in the negotiations did not have much guidance, and the number of 680,000 tons was too small after all. Under such prices, China's thermal coal exports may continue to shrink significantly, and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the major markets for China's coal exports. In fact, China’s coal exports have been declining continuously. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to May this year, China exported 8.04 million tons of coal, of which exports in May was only 880,000 tons, which is a 40% decrease from the same period last year. It also set a record for the lowest export value. Chen Liang simply estimated that in accordance with the price of 146 US dollars / ton conversion, China and Japan thermal coal price of 5800 kcal less than 950 yuan / ton, this price is only slightly higher than the spot price of similar coal Qinhuangdao port offer. The Minmetals group said that it is difficult for Japanese buyers to accept such high prices. It may be more cost-effective to buy coal from other markets, but for Shenhua and China Coal, domestic coal prices have risen for more than 10 weeks in a row. Under the balance of supply and demand, such high prices can be digested. He predicted that there will be a large surplus of 38 million tons of coal export quotas for the whole year. Of the 25.5 million tons of coal issued last year by the National Development and Reform Commission, only 74.5% were used. “The actual export volume this year is not expected to exceed last year. ". The only companies that have the right to export coal in China are Shenhua Group, China Coal Group, Minmetals Group and Shanxi Coal Import and Export Corporation. Power coal import peak Several respondents mentioned that behind the high pricing of the Sino-Japanese thermal coal contract, the Chinese government hopes to protect the domestic coal supply after the “electricity shortageâ€. Li Ting, a coal analyst with China Product Marketing, said that since May, the domestic coal supply has been in a tight balance, and the Bohai Bay thermal coal index has risen from 767 yuan/ton in March to 841 yuan/ton in the current period. In addition to the production blowout of high-energy-consuming industries and the decline of hydropower output in April and May, the constraints of railway transportation capacity are also an important factor. China’s annual coal output of more than 3 billion yuan, but the export value of the past few years, but 20 million - 50 million tons, has little effect on supply and demand. However, the railway transportation capacity index occupied by export coal will actually affect the supply of electricity to the southeastern coastal areas. “To suppress coal exports can in fact shift the transport capacity indicators to support domestic coal supply.†In order to protect the supply of domestic coal, the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed about four central enterprises including China Coal and Shenhua in May to stabilize supply and stabilize domestic coal prices. In recent days, news came from the market that the government is studying the reduction of import VAT rates for coal and reducing the cost of intermediate links in imported coal in order to stimulate coal imports and increase domestic supply. The specific tax rate may be reduced from 17% to 13%. Huang Teng said that under the pressure of controlling inflation, the government's means of suppressing coal prices has only two hands. The first is the direct intervention of administrative means, including the negotiation rate of previous interviews with central SOEs and the recent inspection of key contract coal, but The measures are often limited, and the second is to increase supply by expanding the market for coal imports. Analysts believe that China's steam coal imports are ushering in a peak. One of China's largest coal traders, Guangdong Asia-Pacific Energy Group, disclosed on June 21 that since May, the company’s import volume has more than doubled, and the monthly import of thermal coal in May and June is about 2 million tons. He said that as a matter of fact, the price of imported coal's arrival duty in Hong Kong has not been much different from the coal arrival price in the north, and Qinhuangdao Port, which has important routes for the north coal and the south, has recently waited for too many boats to pull coal, but supply is actually inferior to imported coal. . Another reason for stimulating traders to increase imports is the expected price increase caused by the “electricity shortage.†The aforementioned traders said that after months of power shortage, traders are making large purchases from places like Indonesia and Vietnam. An official in charge of coal supply in Guangdong Province also introduced that Guangdong imported 4.12 million tons of coal in May, the highest level in history. “In the past month, the province’s coal stocks have increased by 1 million tons. These increases have come almost entirely from The contribution of imported coal.†Affected by this, the number of stocks in Guangzhou Port also reached more than 2.8 million tons, approaching the limit of inventory. Several provinces on the southeastern coast, represented by Guangdong, are the major consumers of imported coal in China. Huang Teng estimates that China's coal imports can be controlled at about 150 million tons in the year, which is basically the same as last year. The annual coal trade will still maintain a net import structure of about 130 million tons. Industrial Powder Grinder Machine
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Stagnant steam coal exports