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1. Passenger car market:
Still maintaining growth, slowing growth
In 2007, the cumulative number of passenger vehicles in the industry was 6,831,100, an increase of 21.94% over the same period of last year, and sales of 6,927,500 vehicles were up by 21.68% year-on-year, which still maintained a double-digit growth trend. From the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate of production and sales of passenger cars in the industry in 2006 was 32.76% and 30.02% respectively. Compared with this, the growth rate of production and sales of passenger cars slowed down by 10.82 and 8.34 percentage points respectively. As the current proportion of passenger vehicles in the entire automotive market is 71%, the growth rate of passenger vehicles has slowed down, resulting in a slowdown in the growth rate of the entire automotive market.
The basic model (car) is the focus of competition in the automotive market. In 2007, the industry basic type (car) production and sales were 4,797,700 and 4,746,600, respectively, an increase of 23.99% and 23.46% respectively. The basic type (car) sales accounted for 53.76% of the total car sales, accounting for 75.05% of the total passenger car sales, which is the biggest focus and competition focus of the automotive market. From January to December, the top ten manufacturing companies were FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai General Motors, Chery Automobile, FAW Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, Guangzhou Honda, Geely Group, Changan Ford, and Shenlong; noteworthy is the Dongfeng. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. had annual sales of more than 100,000 units, and sales reached 127,000 units, an increase of 100.47%, a strong increase. From the perspective of automotive brands, the top 10 brands for sales from January to December were Jetta, Excelle, Camry, Xiali, QQ, Fox, Handan, Passat, Elantra and Accord.
Multifunctional passenger vehicles (MPV) have limited market space. In 2007, the production and sales of industry MPVs were 22.47 and 227,700, respectively, an increase of 15.42% and 18.14%, respectively. MPV sales accounted for 2.57% of the total car sales, accounting for 3.58% of the total passenger car sales. It should be said that due to the growth of oil prices and functional positioning, the MPV market space is relatively limited. At present, the brands with active performance in the MPV market include Ruifeng, Odyssey, Buick GL8, Dongfeng Fashion, and Dongfeng Nissan Junyi.
The sport utility vehicle (SUV) has become a new fashion. In 2007, the production and sales of industrial SUVs were 370,100 and 357,400, respectively, an increase of 51.21% and 50.09%, respectively, and the high-speed growth of SUVs was the main factor driving the growth of passenger vehicles. SUV sales accounted for 4.06% of the total car sales, accounting for 5.67% of the total passenger car sales. At present, the brands with active SUV market performance mainly include Dongfeng Honda CR-V and Beijing Hyundai Tucson. In particular, Dongfeng Honda's new CR-V, from external modeling to internal performance, reflects the sporty and versatile use of SUVs. Such characteristics, leading the new passenger car market fashion.
The market situation of crossover passenger cars is slightly blurred. In 2007, the production and sales of cross-industry crossover passenger cars were 99.86 and 987,800, respectively, an increase of 7.29% and 7.62% respectively, and the sales of crossover passenger cars accounted for 11.24% of the total sales of automobiles. It accounted for 15.68% of the total passenger vehicle sales. Cross-type passenger vehicles occupy a considerable market share in the automotive market, and once a few years ago there has been a rapid growth. However, at present, many large cities have restrictions on “faceâ€. There are a large number of cross-type passenger cars that are justified when they are bought, and many of them are called “black cars†when they are bought. Therefore, the market for cross-shaped passenger cars is therefore How many people feel awkward.
2. Commercial Vehicle Market: Initiating a New Round of Growth and Business Opportunity
In 2007, the cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in the industry were 250.13 and 2.494 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 22.21% and 22.25% over the same period of last year. The increase in production and sales volume was slightly higher than that of passenger cars. After China’s commercial vehicle market fluctuates in 2005, adjustments in 2006 finally led to a new round of rapid growth in 2007, bringing a welcome situation in which commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles go hand in hand, which has fundamentally changed the demand structure. For commercial vehicle companies, it is a rare business opportunity.
Heavy truck: contest of overall strength. In 2007, the industry accumulated sales of 48.75 heavy trucks, an increase of 59.63%. Among them, there were 93,100 heavy-duty trucks, an increase of 69.00% year-on-year, and 21.66 million non-integrated heavy-duty trucks, an increase of 35.76% year-on-year, and 178,800 tractor-trailers, an increase of 91.86% year-on-year. . Sales of semi-trailer tractors: 1984 vehicles with a total mass of less than 25T, an increase of 46.53%; total mass of 146,000 vehicles at 25T-40T, a year-on-year increase of 95.65%; 2.98 with a total mass of more than 40T. 10,000 vehicles, an increase of 78.62% year-on-year.
At present, the heavy truck market pattern has undergone significant changes. In the heavy-duty truck market, CNHTC, North Benz and Jianghuai are temporarily in a leading position; in the non-completed vehicle market for heavy-duty trucks, Dongfeng and FAW Group still have considerable advantages; in the tractor-trailer market, FAW Group has a slight advantage, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Shaanxi Automobile Group, Beiqi Foton and Dongfeng Company ranked second to fifth. In general, the heavy truck market is in a mixed competitive landscape of “seven-hungry hegemonyâ€. Heavy trucks have high technological content and high economic value added. They lead the technical direction and development trend of trucks and are highly concerned by the commercial vehicle industry. Competition in the heavy truck market has become a big force in the overall strength of corporate technology, products, manufacturing, marketing, and capital.
With the expansion of the heavy truck market, domestic heavy truck brands are rapidly diversified, differentiated and personalized. This means that the brand marketing and brand services in the heavy truck market will be further upgraded. At the same time, the implementation of Euro III emission standards, over-limit overload management, and fuel price fluctuations will have many impacts on the R&D, manufacturing, sales, and profitability of heavy vehicles. In short, how can the heavy truck market be "heavy".
Zhongka: A thin "dumbbell" handle. In 2007, the industry accumulated sales of 236,700 cards, an increase of 17.24% year-on-year. Among them, the number of medium-sized trucks was 131,300, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40%, and medium-sized goods vehicles were 105,500 non-integrated vehicles, an increase of 63.20% year-on-year.
China's truck market and even the entire automobile market started in the China Card Market. Once it was “deficient, lighter, and lighterâ€, the China Cards dominated the market. With the changes in the market demand structure, the development of the truck market has evolved from medium to heavy and light two. In particular, during the period from 1998 to 2003, with the continued rapid growth of heavy trucks and the steady growth of light trucks, the market in China Cards has been shrinking.
In fact, if we carefully study the development trend of the medium-term card market in 1997-2006 for 10 years, we will find that the shrinkage of the China Card market is not as large as it seems. The average annual demand has remained at over 170,000 vehicles. Moreover, there are many enterprises in the central and western regions showing a clear trend of growth. The Chinese card market has seen some bright spots from time to time. It now appears that if the market structure of trucks is compared to the "dumb-bell type", then the card used as a "dumb-bell" handle is actually not fine.
The west migration and regionalization of China Card Market Center is particularly evident. From the perspective of sales in 2007, Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. saw an increase of 21.29% year-on-year, with sales ranking the top, followed by FAW Group, Chengdu Trump, Sichuan Nanjun, Jianghuai Group and Chengdu New Earth. It is clear that the top-ranking Chinese card companies occupy an important position in the western region. Obviously, grasping the market in the central and western regions will be the key to the success of the China Card market.
Light truck: Market space that cannot be overlooked. In 2007, the industry sold 1,104,900 light trucks, an increase of 16.19% year-on-year. Among them, 1,054,300 light trucks were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.64%, and 99,600 non-integrated light vehicles were sold, an increase of 3.35% year-on-year.
In recent years, the production and sales volume of light trucks has generally maintained a steady growth. From the perspective of market demand, the sales volume of light trucks is far greater than that of heavy trucks, medium trucks, and micro cards, and they have an absolute advantage in the truck market. Therefore, the "light truck" market must not be underestimated.
It is expected that the future light truck market will continue to follow the broader market, showing a steady increase in sales, and the increase may not be too great, but there is less likelihood of a major ups and downs. At the same time, with the rise of a group of light-card companies, competition in the light-duty-card market is also a “spiritual phenomenonâ€. Faced with such a huge market space for 1 million light trucks in sales, who would dare to despise? !
Micro-card: Do not be good, not small. In 2007, the industry cumulatively sold 315,400 micro cards, an increase of 8.36% year-on-year. The number of mini trucks was 286,800, an increase of 6.04% year-on-year, and the number of incomplete vehicles for minivans was 28,700, a year-on-year increase of 38.69%. If you really want to see the truck market as a "dumbbell," it is actually a microcard plus a card that is one end, a light truck that is one end, and a middle card that is a handle. This is a relatively balanced pattern.
At present, the micro-card market, Chang'an Group, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Hafei Motors are among the top three; Jinbei Auto, Hebei Zhongxing, and China FAW Group are among four to six, and the increase in production and sales is higher than the industry average. In addition, Dongfeng Company, which has just been involved in the micro-card market, relied on its advantage of “Dongfeng†to achieve a well-known brand name. Its annual sales increased by 189.65% year-on-year, and the growth trend was positive.
Passenger cars: Smooth and smooth roads. In 2007, the cumulative sales of passenger cars (including passengers and non-customers) totaled 349,500, an increase of 20.97% year-on-year, including 247,500 passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 29.56%, and 102,000 non-integrated passenger vehicles, up from the same period of the previous year. An increase of 4.19%. In recent years, the passenger car market has maintained a stable and slightly high growth trend. However, because its base number is relatively small and the user range is relatively limited, people pay less attention to it.
Big increase in guests. In 2007, the industry sold a total of 40,100 large buses and passengers, an increase of 26.56% year-on-year. Among them, 30,200 were large passenger cars, an increase of 43.26% year-on-year, and 9,970 non-integrated buses were large passenger cars, down 6.45% year-on-year. The top five largest passenger car sales companies were in order: Zhengzhou Yutong, Dandong Huanghai, Shanghai Shenwo, Xiamen Golden Dragon and Suzhou Jinlong; the top three non-full vehicle sales companies were FAW Group, Fujian Xinfuda and Dongfeng Company.
Zhongjia increased slightly. In 2007, the industry accumulated sales of 78,600 medium-sized passenger cars and passengers, an increase of 13.61% year-on-year. The rate of increase is slightly lower than that of big passengers and light passengers. Among them, there were 37,900 medium-sized passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.32%, and 40,800 non-integrated vehicles of medium-sized passenger vehicles, an increase of 4.53% year-on-year. The top five companies selling medium-sized passenger cars were Suzhou Jinlong, Zhengzhou Yutong, FAW Toyota, Dongfeng and Yangzhou Yaxing. The top five non-integrated vehicle sales companies were Dongfeng Corporation, Jianghuai Group, Fujian Xinfuda, Hunan Automobile and FAW Group.
Lightweight passengers lifted lightly. In 2007, the industry accumulated a total of 230,700 light buses and light buses, a year-on-year increase of 22.73%. The increase ranged between big customers and middle customers. Among them, a total of 179,400 light passenger vehicles, an increase of 28.42% year-on-year, and 51,300 non-integrated light-duty buses, an increase of 6.27%. The top three companies for light bus sales are Jinbei Automobile, Jiangling Motors, and Nanjing Automobile Group. The top three companies for midsize passenger vehicles are Dongfeng, Jianghuai, and Hunan Automobile.
In general, the Chinese auto market maintained a growth trend in 2007, and there has been a good situation in which the passenger car market and the commercial vehicle market have grown at the same time, especially the recovery growth of the commercial vehicle market, for Chinese cars built on the truck market. The enterprise has given new business opportunities and confidence, which has enabled commercial vehicle companies to show their vitality and vitality in the market changes.
2008: Cautious Optimistic or Expectable
According to the National Information Center, China's auto sales margin this year is around 6%, compared with 2%-3% in developed countries. According to statistics, in 2005, the accumulative total profits of enterprises above designated size in the automotive industry totaled 52.617 billion yuan, and in 2006 it was 76.773 billion yuan. The profits of Chinese auto companies have gradually increased. It is estimated that in 2007, auto companies will overcome the pressure of price cuts, increase production, increase income, and increase profits. The profits of the entire automotive industry are expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
It was also learned that the main factor in the increase in the economic efficiency of auto companies this year was that the domestic production rate of new production models of joint ventures has increased significantly, reaching a maximum of 80% or more, and more than 90% of joint ventures have newly launched domestic models. The rate exceeds 40%. At present, the localization rate of joint ventures can reach an average of about 75%. The domestic auto market staged a “price cuts warâ€, and the higher the localization rate, the lower the cost, the lower the price can be, and under the pressure of price cut competition, the foreign partner of the joint venture has to face the reality. The strength of large localization, while China's auto parts industry has a more rapid development than the vehicle industry, creating conditions for increasing the localization rate. Another important factor is that auto companies have strengthened their internal management, focused on lean operations, and tapped inside and out to reduce costs, which has further improved their profitability.
According to the forecast of the National Information Center, in 2008 China's economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid development. The high growth rate of economic growth will stabilize and decline slightly. The increase in overall price level will slow down, employment conditions will continue to improve, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves will slow down. The growth rate of GDP will fall from 11.4% in 2007 to about 10.8% in 2008.
For Chinese auto companies, there are the following favorable and unfavorable factors in 2008:
Positive factors: Macroeconomics continue to grow; In the first year of the implementation of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the leadership of many provinces and cities has been adjusted. The new team will bring new ideas for local economic development and promote the development of regional economy. The 2008 Olympic Games will be held in China and will also promote the "Olympic economy" in the domestic market; the construction of national highways and urban transportation will promote the development of automobile logistics; the income of residents will continue to increase, and the consumer demand for cars for urban residents will continue to grow. increase. At present, China’s per capita car ownership is approximately 3 vehicles/100 persons. According to the internationally accepted generalization stage of cars, China’s overall status is “in the early stage of automobileizationâ€. The dual structure of China’s cities is prominent, and the vehicle ownership in first-tier cities is close to 20 vehicles. / 100 people, automobile consumption has entered the “automation stageâ€; the central government further implements the policy of benefiting agriculture, the construction of a new socialist countryside will accelerate, and the demand for commercial vehicles in rural areas will increase; the state encourages the export of automobiles and parts and components to set up export bases, and automobile exports will Become a focus of attention and so on.
Unfavorable factors: China's auto market has an annual sales of nearly 8.8 million units, which increases the market's forecasted variables. In recent years, the domestic automobile consumption, especially the consumption of cars, is mainly based on the purchase of new cars. With the implementation of the fuel tax and oil prices continuing to fluctuate at high levels, the consumption structure will change; continuous price reduction promotions may trigger a wait-and-see effect on the auto market; according to the automotive cycle Laws: After a new round of high growth, the possibility of a rebound still exists, especially in the commercial vehicle market. Whether it can sustain growth in 2007 under the influence of “strictly controlled new projects†and “tight monetary policy†Situation is worth paying attention to; fluctuations in steel prices, rising prices in the power and coal industries, rising prices of non-ferrous metals and other raw materials, increasing pressures on automobile manufacturing costs; increasing energy shortages and awareness of environmental protection, especially the strengthening of energy-saving and emission-reduction The development of technology in the direction of energy conservation, new energy, low emissions, and low pollution has further increased the cost pressure; congestion in large cities has led many local governments to introduce some restrictions on travel and so on.
Therefore, how to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, how to grasp favorable factors, and how to resolve unfavorable factors are the unique secrets that every automobile company needs to seriously study.
According to the data collected so far, the predictions for the Chinese automobile market in 2008 can be roughly classified into three categories.
Discreet forecast. Increase between 10-15%. Based on the sales of 8,791,500 units in the industry in 2007 (the same below), in 2008, the production and sales of automobiles were between 968-10.11 million units.
Eccentric Forecast: Between 15-18% increase. In 2008, the production and sales of automobiles were between 1011-10.37 million.
Optimistic forecast: increase between 18-20%. In 2008, automobile production and sales were between 1037-10.55 million.
Obviously, based on the above forecast, as long as the industry sales increase in 2008 will reach 15%, it will exceed the 10 million mark and the Chinese auto industry will push a new historical height.
Passenger car field. The sales of high-end brand cars will continue to be stable, the competition in the mid-end market will become more intense, and models with good fashion and dynamic performance will be favored by young consumers. The improved leisure SUVs represented by CR-V will continue to maintain a high growth trend. In terms of mature vehicle market, oil prices, taxation and other factors have limited impact on SUVs, and SUV market share may further expand. Especially with the release of demand for second- and third-tier cities, SUVs are expected to become new growth points; MPVs increase. The speed will exceed the average growth rate of the entire passenger car, but its market potential is slightly inferior to the SUV market.
According to preliminary statistics, in the industry, there will be 46 new cars for passenger cars in 2008. Obviously, new wars, price wars, and marketing wars will continue to be staged.
Commercial vehicle industry. It is worth paying attention to whether it can maintain the high growth of the previous year. Heavy trucks and light trucks have become more prominent in the development of the market. The distribution of dumbbells in the commercial vehicle market has become more prominent. With the implementation of transportation methods and the country’s three standards, the mid- to high-end heavy trucks with advanced technology, quality, and cost-effectiveness will have more room for market growth, and the competition in the heavy truck market will become more intense; the market share of China Cards will be squeezed out by some new companies. The increase in the number of micro-cards due to the challenges brought about by technology and emissions has slowed down significantly; passenger cars and passengers and non-customers have maintained a steady growth trend, but the base number will not increase substantially; the implementation of national energy-saving emission reduction policies is an irreversible trend. With the rise in oil prices, the demand orientation of the entire automotive market will change. The year 2008 is the third year of implementation of the 11th Five-Year Plan. According to the previous laws, the commercial vehicle market in the middle of each five-year plan is prone to turning point and large fluctuations. Therefore, the commercial vehicle market dominated by trucks in 2008 deserves vigilance and attention.
In short, as an auto company, we all hope that the Chinese auto market will maintain a rapid and steady growth in 2008. Of course, what needs to be reminded is that whether the car market is expected to be cautious or optimistic, auto companies should have their own rational trade-offs and proper target positioning. After all, for auto companies, sales are not enough, and business operations are not simply looking for good-looking numbers. Whether a company can actually make profits, how the quality of business operations can be, and whether it can continue to develop, this is the most important thing.
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